NBA Draft, MBA, HORSE, Crabtree

NBA Draft
I love the “this guy looks like that guy” game and the “this player is most like this player” game. I do it constantly. And while I do it for fun, I’m told that scouts do it because it’s a good way to completely evaluate a player because it sort of puts a fake ceiling on the guy’s potential. With Blake Griffin telling the sports world what it already knew by declaring for the draft yesterday, it seems like a good idea to share who I think Blake Griffin is after watching him play in the tournament. He looks and plays exactly like Kenyon Martin, except that Martin was a far better defender, especially shot blocking (3.5 blocks per game). At 6’9 230, Martin is lighter than Griffin who is 6’10 250, but for all practical purposes they have the same offensive game because they both have (or had in Martin’s case) great aggression, explosion, and suddenness around the rim. Both are very solidly built, athletic guys, and both are bad-to-terrible from the free-throw line.

Griffin is lagging way, way, way behind in the ink and jackass category, but with time, he can make up some ground. Even with the injuries that Martin suffered in his NBA career (not to mention breaking his damn leg in the Conference USA tournament), Griffin would have to be pleased with this comparison. Martin went No. 1 overall and has made well north of $100M in his career. I’m guessing that Griffin would take that.

DeJuan Blair is another guy ripe for an NBA comparison. When watching games and reading through various profiles, I’ve heard him being compared to Robert “Tractor” Traylor, which is completely unfair and actually off base. Blair is 6’7 265. Traylor was 6’8 and 300+. Traylor was, and probably still is, fat. He also didn’t hustle at all possessing an extremely lazy all-around game. It’s a mystery why he was drafted so high, going to Dallas at No. 6(!) overall in ’98 at then immediately traded to Milwaukee for Pat Garrity and the Diggler. Blair is not fat he’s just huge. He also plays tough and his teammates seem to love him.

The guy whose game Blair’s most closely resembles, from a widebody and below-the-rim perspective is Corliss Williamson. They both are big 6’7 power forwards. Williamson weighed anywhere from 245-260, putting him in the same girthy category as Blair. They both were and are tough guys who don’t seem to take any mess. Now, Williamson was drafted higher (13th in ’95) than Blair will be, but Blair’s game is so similar to Williamson’s and he may even be a better player defensively because of his long wingspan. While Elton Brand is the absolute ceiling for Blair, but a more realistic career is Williamson’s, which ain’t bad.

A very random guy that we saw too little of this tournament is Florida State’s Toney Douglas. We only saw him play against that team with no regard for decency in basketball (Wisconsin) but in that brief period, he looked great. At 6’1 195, he reminds me of a better, stronger, more explosive Mike Conley Jr. (6’1 185). Douglas is actually older than Conley because Conley left after his freshman season while Conley is a senior, but that shouldn’t lessen his NBA prospects. The biggest issue with Douglas, now that I’ve actually looked at his stats is that he didn’t create many buckets for others (only 2.9 assists/game) and turned the ball over at nearly the same rate (2.5 turnovers/game). I have no idea if that’s because of his team’s inability to score of if he hogs the ball. He scored 21.5 and shot 38% from three and 81% from the line so he’s clearly able to get his own points, but if the Wisconsin game is any indication, he’s got a pretty decent-looking game and looked to be in complete control the entire time with an abundance of (well-deserved) confidence. He probably won’t be drafted in the first round, but it won’t be because he doesn’t deserve it (just as Mike Conley Jr. didn’t deserve to go No. 4 overall), but I can see him making a team and doing some good things in the NBA. Anyway, just watching him for the short period that I saw him, I’m convinced that he’s better than Luke Ridnour ever was or will ever be, not that that means much.

MBA
Here’s an extremely random and out-of-date take that I buried in my notes awhile back regarding Matthew Bryan-Amaning, who, by all indications, looks to be a guy I may castigate until he leaves UW.

I pulled this quote from Bob Condotta’s blog, the excellent beat guy for UW Football and Basketball. He spoke to Matthew Bryan-Amaning and asked him about his production during the Pac-10 schedule:

"It was just that when the Pac-10 season started, everyone started to fill in their roles, Jon and Isaiah (Thomas) and Quincy (Pondexter) were the main offensive guys on this team and I felt that maybe if one of those guys wasn't having a good scoring night I needed to step up,'' he said. "But what they needed from me and Darnell (Gant) was defense and rebounding, really.''

That’s a fair point about why he didn’t score much, he only averaged 5.4 points during the Pac-10 schedule. I get that. He wasn’t called upon to score and that’s totally cool. However, if he wasn’t asked to score and wasn’t shooting much, how does that explain shooting a ridiculously low 38.9 percent from the field as a post player? That’s atrocious. We all know that he consistently missed easy 2-footers, so I shouldn’t be surprised that he missed 61 percent of his shots, but it’s still remarkable. Does he not look when he shoots? He seems allergic to the backboard and is in love with the back of the iron. He turns what should be a high percentage shot (being 6’9 and in deep position in the low post) into a low percentage shot because it seems abundantly clear that he has no idea how to shoot a jump hook with any reliable degree of accuracy. I’m going out on a limb here by saying that someone is going to beat him out for playing time next season. A successful team cannot have its post player killing them on the offensive end. Maybe he’s left handed and hasn’t realized it. I want him to be good and UW needs him to be good, and maybe he’ll turn it around because he’ll be the unquestioned big guy for them. As we’ve seen time after time, players’ games mature as they get older. Brockman looked absolutely terrible as a freshman and while he didn’t progress all that much as an offensive player, he never had those types of physical skills. MBA has them and hopefully he’ll use them.

HORSE
I watched the HORSE (presented by GEICO) competition during NBA All-Star Weekend. I love the concept and it makes sense for the NBA to stage the event outside because most people play HORSE outside, at the playground or in the hoop at someone’s house. Sadly, the event was boring and I was disappointed. The idea is cool, but there is an unavoidable flaw to HORSE that makes it kind of a crappy spectator sport. If no one is hitting shots, it’s unbelievably boring. The players don’t think it’s boring because if they keep missing, they’re hoping the other guy is missing too so that he can get himself back in the game. To make HORSE a successful spectator sport, the players themselves absolutely must be engaged and entertaining.

No one outside of NBA scouts has seen Memphis play all year (not even the good people of Memphis), so OJ Mayo was a bit of a mystery in terms of his NBA talent. I’m not talking about his NBA game, necessarily; I mean his talent to be extraordinarily cocky and entertaining at the same time. He definitely had some flashes of smack talk, I heard him say something like “it’s an easy shot Kev… no problem…” just before Kevin Durant was going to shoot. That’s the kind of stuff everyone does playing HORSE. It’s a reverse psychology thing to make people let down their guard a bit and miss an easy shot. It’s a head game and it’s accepted and encouraged—especially by me. I didn’t see any of that out of Durant or Joe Johnson. This event was missing a cutup, a person who is a non-stop jabbermouth who could back up anything he was saying. The guy that they were missing was Gilbert Arenas. He’s a motormouth of the highest order and he’s funny. He’s also been known to annoy the hell out of his teammates. I recall a story when he was a rookie where he had to bring donuts to practice, but before anyone could take one, he licked every single one. It’s a childish and stupid thing to do, but that type of attitude (annoying, but funny) is perfect for HORSE because it would throw people off their game or at least cause them to concentrate more. It really is a shame that Agent Zero was hurt this year, he’d have been perfect. Maybe next year.

Also, Gary Payton would have been an incredible contestant for this event. He had a really gross-looking “jumper” that he’d toss up with his head slightly cocked back and would have talked the entire time. Plus, GP is great with his left hand since he writes with his left hand, but shoots with his right hand. He would have melted people down with his ability and mouth, it’s too bad this wasn’t around when he was playing. Maybe they should have an NBA legends HORSE game?

Michael Crabtree
His injury to his foot notwithstanding, it seems so weird that several news outlets and football writers are lamenting the fact that Crabtree is not 6’3, but instead 6’1+ as if that’s a huge difference. Correct me if I’m wrong, but is he not bigger than nearly every DB he’ll go against next year in the NFL? Since when is being over 6’1 a detriment to a WR? Does it hurt Anquan Boldin? Just because he’s not as big as Larry Fitzgerald, a guy people want to compare Crabtree to because our minds are so limited we can only follow what’s directly in front of us. E.g. Fitzgerald was all the rage, deservedly so, in the playoffs, doesn’t mean he won’t be amazing in the NFL. So, consequently, every receiver is compared to him and anyone not fitting his exact parameters is therefore negatively impacted. It’s ridiculous. It’s lazy. And it’s all too common.

Pulling for Purdue

Fans experience an interesting phenomenon in postseason settings when the team that they follow is eliminated from contention. These fans fall into two groups:

1. Fans who align with the team that eliminated their team, and
2. Fans who align with the team that opposes the team that eliminated their team.

I’m ignoring a third group of fans who don’t care one way or the other because their Swiss-like neutral perspective is boring; much like I ignorantly perceive Switzerland to be having never been there myself. I just know that it’s expensive and that they’ve got banks, I know this because I’ve watched Matt Damon’s Bourne movies.

As a sports fan in the Seattle area, I have experienced this tug of allegiance numerous times in recent history because my teams fail to advance (or even enter) in the postseason.

Most recently, this allegiance question focuses on Purdue.

Here are two some possible thoughts fans may be having and the reasons that they feel the way that they do:

1. I’m rooting for the team that beat my team to validate that while my team lost, at least it lost to a good team.
   
   Clearly this fan is adopting a loser’s mentality, but it is pervasive and has some merit. Many people feel this way. It also makes some sense because while it’s a loser’s mentality, there’s a reason for that that: Because the team this fan roots for LOST.
   
2. I’m rooting for the team that beat my team to play well because I don’t want my team to look bad for losing to a team that gets its ass handed to it in the next round.
   
   This fan roots this way because he doesn’t want his team (that already lost, mind you) to look bad. This thinking is somewhat convoluted because the team already looks bad because it did lose, but to lose to a team that looks bad makes his team look much worse. It’s like losing twice and constantly makes this fan think “Why couldn’t they play like that when they faced us!?” or worse, “We’re so bad we lost to garbage team.” Neither alternative is good.

Both scenarios are face-saving justifications, but I tend to go with number 2 because it seems like the fan is still primarily focused on his team and is slightly more negative at its core, which sums me up nicely.

Another phenomenon that creeps up occasionally by some twist of fate is focused not on the team that beat the fan’s team, but is more outwardly focused on the opponent of that team. In this case: the hated (and evidently cheating) UConn Huskies.

UConn has dramatically ended tourney runs by UW twice in the last decade. One was Rip Hamilton’s buzzer beater that makes me want rip up the carpet in my TV room, find anyone with any ties to UConn, roll them up in the carpet, and kick the carpet down a hill into oncoming traffic anytime I see it. (By the way, thanks, a lot CBS for constantly replaying that goddamn commercial, it’s not funny. Why didn’t Patrick Femerling tip the ball high into the air? Why are you doing this to me?)

Thinking of UConn also reminds me of Mike Jensen’s brainlocked foul on Marcus Williams… it’s killing me just thinking about it. By the way, I was born in Connecticut and own a UConn sweatshirt that my dad brought back from a visit he took back east. I guess this means that I'm should roll myself up in the carpet... I really should burn that thing and flush the ashes down the toilet, although I’m sure it would clog my pipes and cause the sewer to back up; such is the power that the Eastern Huskies wield over me.

So, instead of just rooting for Purdue to save face, I’m rooting against UConn for historical, pain-inducing reasons. That’s double rooting interest coming from my house, which should be more than enough to topple Calhoun and his merry bunch of thieves and hooligans (that’s unfair, but I don’t care right now). Go Boilers.

The Purdue/UConn scenario also applied to the Super Bowl last year because of the visceral hate that Seahawks fans have for the Pittsburgh Steelers as a result of that horrible game in Detroit in 2005. As I’ve written in the past, I, like many others, was pulling for Arizona in that game. My hate for Pittsburgh was mighty and my desire for an NFC West team to win was much less mighty, but it was there.

A similar rooting-interest corollary arises when a fan’s team is eliminated, or didn’t make the tournament/playoffs at all. It’s interesting to see how people feel when this happens. I enjoy watching games where I’ve got a rooting interest, that’s obvious. I don’t gamble, so that’s out, I’m talking about pure, emotional interest. There are times when I watch a game and I really don’t care who wins, but it’s impossible for me to not lean one way or another, oftentimes for no good reason. For instance, when I was watching Florida State play Wisconsin I couldn’t care less who won, but I did pick Wisconsin in my bracket, so you’d think I’d be pulling for them. But I hate their style of play so much that I was definitely pulling for Florida State. There are times when I root for the underdog because it’s fun to do that, but there are times when I root for the favorite because it almost disgraces the game if the favorite loses to such a gross team like Wisconsin.

Yet another reason for rooting for a team is proximity. I’m rooting for Gonzaga for the simple fact that they are from Washington. If this same cast of characters and the same coach were based out of Texas, or worse, Oregon, then I’m certain I wouldn’t give them a second thought. I wouldn’t care about a guy like Micah Downs who looks like he definitely would be Eminem’s best friend in “Eight Mile.” But since he’s from Washington, I pull for him. I definitely would hate Matt Bouldin for the simple, adolescent, preposterous reason that he has longer-than-normal, messy hair. I’m petty that way sometimes. But I like the guy because he plays in Washington (and is a very good player). Austin Daye would receive the heat of my fury for being a waste of size and skills, but he plays for a team in Washington (wait, that one doesn’t work because I kill him now despite who he plays for—scratch that one). I’m even pulling for Arizona because they play in the Pac10. But I’m also pulling for Louisville because Terrance Williams is from Seattle—worlds colliding in that one. Since I have Louisville in the title game, I suppose that’s the trump card.

I don’t know what will happen if both Purdue and UConn fail to advance to the Final Four, but I’m sure I’ll figure something else out. Maybe I’ll figure out a way to root against Missouri because they fired Quinn Snyder who is from Washington…

Second Round Thoughts

My friend, Josh, bought two tickets off of eBay on Friday night for the Saturday games in Portland, OR. He’s a UW fan and he and his dad wanted to see them trounce Purdue and step into the Sweet Sixteen. Evidently, Purdue JuJuan Johnson had other plans and now UW is heading home. He did get his money’s worth though because he saw two of the best possible games the NCAA Tournament can feature and were literally decided in the final seconds.

Some thoughts on the two games:

UW v. Purdue
Evidently Purdue plays good defense. I didn’t see them play all year, but when I read descriptions of the squad, they sounded a lot like Washington State. This was not a lazy team. They pressure the ball relentlessly, and may not get a lot of steals, but they limit penetration and contest shots. They are an incredibly active team that chases down rebounds. While some rebounds they got were purely serendipitous, even round balls bounce funny sometimes, they put themselves in position to grab loose balls and UW could not secure easy boards after misses. It was sickening to watch UW get stop after stop, then misjudge the ball, and watch it land in a Purdue player’s hands for an easy layup or jumper. For a team like UW that rebounds the hell out of the ball, this was disheartening, and this is where the game was lost. If Purdue doesn’t get those second chances, the game is not close, but they did, and UW lost.

There were several other things contributing to the loss, however, such as the inability to know when to take good shots (Pondexter’s turnaround at the end of the game when all of his success came from driving to the hoop) or to take any shots at all (Dentmon continued his bizarre passivity by shooting only 8 times this game and pump-faking and passing approximately 30 times). They were unable to stop JuJuan Johnson from being awesome, they guy made some very tough shots and grabbed key rebounds to keep possessions alive. I admired his game, he was huge. Elston Turner not taking open threes. He took, and made, one, but then passed on another. Instead of taking that wide-open shot, he pumped and dribbled in for a baseline floater. I’m not a fan of gunners, but he’s the best shooter they have and it’s actually more selfish of him to not take that three because it hurts the team. It’s a minor thing, but as it turns out a pile of minor things equals going home instead of going to the Sweet Sixteen. He’s young, though, as are many key contributors on this team, so their future looks bright—although I do have concerns as I’ll describe below.

Now some good things… Brockman played a nearly perfect game for him. He did not force things offensively. He bullied anyone and everyone. He took and made layins. I love the way he played and I shudder a bit when I think of the team next year without him. As much as I’ve urinated on his offensive (scoring) game, his ability to go balls-to-the wall is something that will be hard, probably impossible, to replicate. I’m not the least bit convinced that MBA will be able to do this. He’s not tough enough (but who is?) right now and doesn’t seem to have that same drive (but who does?). I guess he’s talented, but he does not seem comfortable or in control of his body yet. The only hope is that Tyreese Breshers will be a similar type of player.

Isaiah Thomas was fantastic. He played with the type of fire and urgency that the team needed. He was fearless the way he kept penetrating and either scoring, getting fouled, or dishing to Brockman. I loved the way he played, even if he did miss some free throws. I’m shocked that his final layin attempt failed, it was the right play, but it just didn’t drop.

Great season by UW, but it’s a damn shame that they’re going home.

Gonzaga v. Western Kentucky
My friend Joel is a huge Gonzaga fan so when I called him during the game to tell him how much I loved Matt Bouldin’s game, here’s what he said: “I have a mancrush on him, he’s my favorite player in college basketball.” I can see why. I’ve watched him intently these last two games and a few things are clear:

1. he’s a big, strong, guy
2. he’s got tremendous court vision
3. he’s aggressive when the game calls for him to be aggressive
4. he has a good-looking jumper
5. he’s not quick or fast, but he's savvy
6. he’s decent on defense, but somewhat disinterested (looks like he sags off of his guys a bit too much when the ball is on the other side of the court)
7. he is definitely an NBA player.

Joel and I talked about the possibility of him playing point guard in the NBA and it seems like a real possibility to me. At 6’5 225 he’s a much bigger, much better version of Steve Blake, who happens to be starting for the playoff-bound Blazers and playing over 30 minutes a game.

We also talked about Austin Daye, of course, and Joel compared his game to Dirk Nowitski, which is probably accurate from a skillset perspective, but a more apt comparison and a guy whose game he really emulates is Mehmet Okur. Now, Okur has about 70 lbs on Daye, but they play the same. Okur is perimeter-oriented, 6’11, and slow footed. This is Austin Daye. The comment that he's a "guard" are ridiculous. He's way, way, way too slow to guard any decent 2 or even a 3.

The game itself was one of the best I’ve ever seen. These two teams shot the damn lights out. Both teams shot over 50% from the field and over 42% from beyond the arc. Amazing. The game was extremely close throughout and neither team could gain a significant advantage.

Orlando Mendez-Valdez and A.J. Slaughter were in such a zone they were communicating with animals, existing and extinct. They were supernatural and would not let their team down. They could have beaten any team yesterday, Gonzaga was just able to hang on and make a great play at the end.

When Gonzaga plays UNC they need, absolutely need, to get the ball to Heytvelt so that he can take Tyler Hansbrough's virginity; this matchup, friends, is a mismatch in size and talent. Heytveldt is such a superior player and it’s the smart move to get the ball to him.

Here are a few random thoughts about Wisconsin. That is a gross team. As much as I can figure, it seems like their “offense” is this: pass the ball around the court. Pump fake. Pass some more. Take a crappy three with five seconds on the shot clock. They shoot 36% from three, so I guess it’s not such a terrible way to play, but I’d rather rub a cheese grater on my face than sit through another game with those guys in it again. Keep them off of my screen, CBS.

Thoughts on Round One (UW and Gonzaga, only)

UW
Pondexter looked great offensively yesterday, but I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t point out that he fell asleep on defense and let his man (No.5, Osby) grab an offensive rebound and flush it with two hands. Pondexter had no idea where he was and helped someone else block out their man. I can’t kill him for that because he had a great game, but the little stuff like that can haunt teams in close games. He’s got to be aware and I’m sure his coaches let him know it. I'm a hard guy to please when it comes to teams I root for, it's something they have to live with. Seeing as how they have no idea who I am, and coulnd't possibly care less by the way, they're getting along just fine despite my constant haranguing.

I’m bummed for Dentmon. It’s obvious that the guy wants to be a leader and go out with a bang, but putting up only six shots is lunacy. He passed up many what I would consider “good” shots by pump-faking and passing or pump-faking and making a less-than-aggressive effort to drive into the lane. It’s possible that he just didn’t trust his jumper last night and if that’s the case, then he should be commended for not taking shots. Confidence is a huge part of shooting and if he wasn’t feeling it and his jumper felt forced, then good for him for lying off. Hopefully he’ll be ready to go on Saturday.

Brockman hit the deck after that rebound like he was thrown out of a 10-story building. He landed completely on his side. It’s amazing to me that he didn’t stay on the ground, although why would I be amazed at this point? He doesn’t feel pain like a regular human does. Nevertheless, I’d advise him to try not to emulate John Malcovich at the end of “In the Line of Fire” again. Great, aggressive game by him though. It’s exactly what I like to see out of him—easy buckets around the rim, good, physical defense, leadership (I distinctly remember him talking to Overton and telling him to settle down) and maniacally obsessive pursuit of the ball for rebounds.

Overton is a straight-up menace. It would be so painful to try and bring the ball up the floor against him. Weak guards will get tormented. He’s like GP used to be from a yappy, aggressive, and quickness perspective. My friend Chris pointed out that Overton beat MSU’s guards to the spot every single time and he got called for fouls only when he reached (which he doesn’t need to do). He’s impressive. I’m amazed that none of MSU’s players threw a haymaker his way, although it could be argued that the hit he took on that screen qualified. Through his own aggression and quickness he nearly got himself killed. People get jacked up on screens all of the time, but most people don’t run, with their head turned, the equivalent of a 4.3 40 straight into a 6’9 245 lb guy. Despite nearly ending his own life, on the very next play he takes the ball coast-to-coast and lays it in. He’s a tough S.O.B. As an aside, that pseudo-alley oop dunk was both impressive and pathetic at the same time if that makes sense.

One last guy I’ll mention is Darnell Gant. If he develops a reliable 12-15 footer he’s going to be great for this team. He’s not called upon to score, that’s obvious, but he’s left open so often that he needs to get that part of his game going. He will never be called on to put the ball on the floor and create like Pondexter does, but people will double off of him and he has a chance to diversify this team and increase his playing time. His defense is great and he’s learning how to play hard just by being on the same court as Brockman. He’s got a chance to be a real difference maker and I’m excited about his future. It’s pretty amazing that he’s only a freshman.

Gonzaga
I’ve been killing Austin Daye every chance I get because I think that he’s a pansy, but he looked very good last night, especially defensively. It’s nearly impossible to get a shot off against him on the perimeter and it’s is truly impossible to get a good look at the hoop if he’s playing up on his guy. For as thin as he is, he’s has no quickness or speed at all, so he definitely needs to add about 30 lbs to take advantage of his size. If his game was all about using his size and quickness then it would make sense for him to remain around 190 or 200, but he isn’t that kind of player. Last night, while he looked good out there, he got shoved around. If he fills out he can be a force. I don’t know what it would take for him to get a little nasty (probably nothing because he’s probably a really nice kid who just doesn’t have it in him to be a killer) but if he added some bulk and aggression he would be a nice player.

I love Heytvelt, 'shrooms aside, that guy is a player. He has that nasty streak that Daye lacks, and perhaps Daye just needs time to grow up a little. He’s only a sophomore. Heytveldt has a bit of a strange looking jumper where his whole body is completely erect, but it’s effective. I like how strong he is and his desire to finish strong around the rim. He looked great last night and if he keeps playing like that, I was wrong to have the Zags lose to UNC. They’ll beat that team if they play like they did in the second half.

Bouldin looked good last night too. He’s got a great feel for the game and his size causes problems for opposing guards. I like his game.

I don’t like Pargo’s game very much but his leaner dunk was shocking. I know he has ups, but that was an out-of-nowhere flush. I could tell that he was going to try because he had that kind of bounce when he got near the rim, but I did not expect him to finish like that. Filthy.

Initial March Madness Thoughts - Part II

For Initial March Madness Thoughts - Part I, click here.

On to the East, South, and final predictions.

EAST

(1) Pittsburgh v. (16) East Tennessee State: Pitt is an extremely tough team that plays great defense and pushes people around. I like their team’s long-term prospects.

Pick: Pitt

(8) Oklahoma State v. (9) Tennessee: This game was one of three where I had a lot of trouble deciding what to do. I breezed through the bracket, picking confidently (and surely errantly), but I had to come back to this game. The trouble is that I don’t like this Tennessee team at all. But then I don’t trust this Oklahoma State team either after watching UW eviscerate them earlier this season. Additionally, I have nothing against headbands, but the way that the Tennessee guys wear them… the look like girls. There’s nothing wrong with girls or women’s basketball or whatever, but there is something wrong with looking like a female when you’re a male and not a transvestite. I can’t get past that look. I am fully aware that these headbands are monumentally meaningless and that my comments are bordering on misogyny, but I just hate that look. It doesn’t take much for me to latch onto irrational, inconsequential beliefs, and these headbands have done it. This is coming from a guy who enjoys SEC football and Tennessee football specifically.

Pick: Tennessee (grudgingly)

(5) Florida State v. (12) Wisconsin: As documented, I dislike Big 10 basketball. However, I can appreciate what the style can do to teams that aren’t talented enough to overcome Big 10 discipline. A team like Washington State plays Big 10 basketball and I can appreciate that, but that doesn’t mean I have to like it. Florida State seems like a team to me that will not be able to stay focused against an extraordinarily patient Wisconsin team.

Pick: Wisconsin

(4) Xavier v. (13) Portland State: I like what Ken Bone has done with this Portland State team and I like that they’ll be sort of close-to-home in Boise. They beat Gonzaga at Gonzaga after the Connecticut game. They nearly won at UW. They’re a nice team, but Xavier is better and is more experienced having advanced to the Great 8 last year. I don’t see PSU pulling this off.

Pick: Xavier

(6) UCLA v. (11) VCU: It’s really too bad for UCLA that Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love aren’t there anymore. This team would be positioned to do some great things if they were. Jrue Holiday isn’t providing the lift that I’m sure UCLA thought that he would provide. They just aren’t that good of a team offensively. Defensively they’re still nice, but I just don’t like their chances, and this looks to be a bad matchup against VCU. Also, I hate their uniforms. I’m a huge proponent of blue, especially powder/baby blue in unis, but for some reason I cannot buy in to UCLA’s gear. Football or basketball. I’m not sure what it is, but it could be the font. I just hate them. I loved Eric Maynor two years ago when he dismantled Duke and I can see him doing the same thing here. I like the guy and I don’t see anyone stopping him for UCLA, again, if Westbrook was still there, it would be a different story.

Pick: VCU

(3) Villanova v. (14) American: Nova is a real nice team. I love the way that these guys play. They’ve got boatloads of experience and are playing well. I like their long-term chances also. The only thing I know about American is that a kid from Issaquah goes there and scores a bit for them. They don’t stand a chance.

Pick: Villanova

(7) Texas v. (10) Minnesota: This was the second of three games that I couldn’t figure out what to think initially. Texas has lost two great players (Durant and Augustin) in two years and it’s got to be tough to recover from that. Minnesota is another Big 10 school that I can’t really get behind but was tempted to advance because of their defensive abilities, but I don’t think that they can score and Texas will be able to a little bit more.

Pick: Texas (in a close, and gross, game)

(2) Duke v. (15) Binghamton: I hate Duke more than I hate Big 10 basketball. It’s the constant fellating of Duke’s program and of Coach K that gets me the most. Yes. I understand that they are a great program. Yes. I understand that they play hard and he gets the most out of the guys he has (as evidenced by the utter lack of success that Duke players have had in the NBA). But I need it to stop and the only way that it stops is if they lose. I’m being shortsighted here, I realize, because if it’s not Duke, then it’ll just be some other team that gets jocked. I get that. But right now it’s Duke and I want it to end.

Here’s something that I find funny and so amazingly dated. Do you remember what a big deal it was when Elton Brand was thinking about declaring early for the NBA Draft? Coach K, to that point, had never had a player leave early. Never. That was about 10 years ago, but seems like 20. It’s hard to believe. But then 10 years ago middle-schoolers weren’t sending each other naked pictures of themselves on their cell phones either.

As for Duke’s team, I don’t like their style of play because they’re too in love with the jumper. Now I love a syrupy J as much as anyone, but teams that rely on the perimeter shot a little too often are destined for trouble because the shot isn’t always going to fall.

I read a story on Binghamton a few weeks ago in the “New York Times” about the troubles that the program is having with the hoop team. It’s amazing how much just 15 guys can have on the psyche of a school that has 11,515 undergraduate students. The hoop team makes up .001% of the student population and the administration and faculty act like someone strapped a used diaper to their faces. I enjoy the myth of the student athlete as much as the next guy, but don’t tell me that these guys are ruining the academic integrity of your institution. It’s embarrassing. The only reason that anyone even knows about these guys is because internal folks complain about it. So who’s hurting the institution more? The complainers, who draw attention to the “problem” or the .001% who no one knows?

Pick: Duke


SOUTH

(1) North Carolina v. (16) Radford: I’d be pretty nervous about the Ty Lawson injury, but it won’t matter at all in this game. I do not like their long-term prospects, with or without Lawson.

Pick: North Carolina

(8) LSU v. (9) Butler: It’s weird that Trent Johnson is at LSU because I can’t think of two more different cultures than Stanford and LSU, not that the basketball coaches have anything remotely to do with academics or anything else within the university. I was surprised that Butler got upended in its conference tournament, but not surprised that they are back in the dance with a pretty favorable seed and draw.

Pick: Butler

(5) Illinois v. (12) Western Kentucky: Courtney Lee is gone, but this team is still tough and I don’t like this Illinois team. This is a perfect candidate for a 12-5 “upset” (of course, I’ve chosen three of the 12 seeds to advance, but whatever).

Pick: Western Kentucky

(4) Gonzaga v. (13) Akron: I don’t know what to do with this Gonzaga team. They have very strong guard play from Pargo and Bouldin. I like Heytveldt a lot. Gray can shoot as well as anyone in the country. Downs is tantalizingly talented and versatile. Daye has so much ability, but is rotten-peach soft. This team really should be in Detroit in April, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to do it. The only thing I know about Akron is that their coach used to be LeBron’s High School coach, unless he’s got another No. 23 hoop wizard, the Zips aren’t going to advance.

Pick: Gonzaga

(6) Arizona State v. (11) Temple: I’m unnaturally high on Arizona State. I love Jeff Pendergraph, even if he is a little stiff-looking. He reminds me of Elden Campbell (although not as tall) a little bit the way he holds his head. It looks like he has to turn his whole body to the side if he wants to look left or right. James Harden is a filthy scorer who will be a good NBA player, but he’s not at all what a good player looks like. That Taliban/Leprechaun-level beard he’s got going is sick and his eyes and teeth look like they’ve been spayed with movie-popcorn butter. But he’s an nice player, despite the shaky appearance. Glasser is a damn good shooter and, as evidenced by the game against UW in the Pac 10 Tournament, won’t back down when pushed. I know nothing about Temple except that I’m a little frightened of one of the cooler names in the tournament: Dionte Christmas.

Pick: Arizona State

(3) Syracuse v. (14) Stephen F. Austin: Syracuse is a very good team that probably feels like it’s been screwed with its pants on by the selection committee for the last two years by being left out of the tournament. Because of that, it makes sense that this team is hungry to make its mark. Because they’ve played so many minutes in the tournament makes me a bit nervous, but they’re young guys and should be able to get up for the games. They are also bolstered by what I consider to be the second coolest name in the tournament: 1950s rock n’ roll sensation Jonny Flynn.

As for SFA, I remember they had a 6’5 230 plus, wide receiver in the NFL who played in the 90s. I can’t remember his name, but I remember him. He might have played for San Diego. I’ll track him down and update you later. I’m sure you’re dying to know.

Pick: Syracuse

(7) Clemson v. (10) Michigan: This is the third of three games that I couldn’t pick right away because I’ve come to learn never to trust Clemson, but I don’t believe in Michigan. I like neither of these teams. However, Clemson beat the living hell out of Duke and I’ve got to respect that.

Pick: Clemson

(2) Oklahoma v. (15) Morgan State: If Blake Griffin is truly healthy, then this team should go pretty far, but as I describe below, I probably artificially inflate teams like Oklahoma.

Pick: Oklahoma

Overall Predictions:

Sweet Sixteen

1. (1) Louisville
2. (12) Arizona
3. (6) West Virginia
4. (2) Michigan State
5. (1) Connecticut
6. (4) Washington
7. (3) Missouri
8. (2) Memphis
9. (1) Pittsburgh
10. (4) Xavier
11. (3) Villanova
12. (2) Duke
13. (1) North Carolina
14. (4) Gonzaga
15. (6) Arizona State
16. (2) Oklahoma

Great Eight

1. (1) Louisville
2. (2) Michigan State
3. (1) Connecticut
4. (2) Memphis
5. (1) Pittsburgh
6. (3) Villanova
7. (1) North Carolina
8. (2) Oklahoma

Final Four

1. (1) Louisville
2. (2) Memphis
3. (1) Pittsburgh
4. (2) Oklahoma

Championship Game

Pittsburgh over Memphis

I’m not the least bit confident that this is what’s going to happen and I'm not happy with my choices. I hate when this happens. It’s not like I’m going to wager much on this thing, but I’d still like to feel a little better about things. I could say that this year is just a crapshoot and it’s impossible to pick because the teams are so evenly matched. I could say that and maybe that would be true. But the reason I don’t feel comfortable or confident is because I haven’t seen enough of these teams play. I don’t like putting Memphis in the Championship Game or even the Final Four, but I don’t trust Louisville at all. I can easily see Michigan State coming out of that region. Hell, UW could come out of their region, but they could also lose in the first or second round. I feel like I’m trying to put together some IKEA furniture here where I can line something up and think it’s right, then force it into place and split the whole damn thing in half.

Earlier this year I thought for sure that Gonzaga was a Final Four team. They really looked like they had all of the pieces, but then I saw the Portland State game and saw what Memphis did to them, (both games at home! Although the Memphis game wasn’t on campus, but still, it was in Spokane), and I just don’t trust them.

I run into trouble with the tournament and predicting other sporting events as well because my familiarity with a team is my curse. If I know a team and don’t see many flaws, I’ll pick them to advance or have great seasons. I did this with the 2008 Seahawks. If I know a team and like them, but have reservations, I’ll handicap them more severely. I’m currently doing this to UW and Gonzaga in this tournament. Granted, I have both of these teams going to the Sweet Sixteen, but they’re both probably capable of more than that.

An alternate version to this happens when I am not that familiar with a team, or dangerously “sort of” familiar with a team. I have Oklahoma going to the Final Four. I know next to nothing about them except that Blake Griffin looks like he is a strong candidate to be a Nougat All Star as soon as next year. At the same time, I completely dismiss high-seeded teams that I’m unfamiliar with, such as Illinois and Florida State.

The bottom line is that I have no idea what I’m talking about, but I like to talk it through anyway.

Initial March Madness Thoughts - Part I

Here are my initial thoughts on the bracket and my knee-jerk reaction picks before researching the teams and matchups more closely. I typically revise my bracket too many times before actually submitting and then, like everyone else I’m sure, immediately regret picking one team to go to far and kicking a different team out too early. This is why I’ve won only one pool in 17 years.

MIDWEST
(1) Louisville v. (16) Play-in Game Winner: If a 16 ever beats a 1, I really hope it’s the play-in winner because it will destroy brackets, especially if the 16 keeps advancing. Any neutral fan who does not have a heart of darkness would be pulling for the 16 to advance in each round. Disney wouldn’t even do this movie because they would find it too sappy and unbelievable for Moorehead State or Alabama State to advance to the Final Four. Also, it’s pretty weak to have a field of 65. Imagine if you played for either one of these school and you’re all excited to be in the tournament and then you watch on Selection Sunday and you’re the goddamn play-in game. It’s like being told you picked the right numbers for the lottery, but you have to play rock-papers-scissors to actually collect the cash. It’s bogus. Just go back to 64 and leave an undeserving team from a bigger conference sit the hell out. Those teams don’t need more chances because they’ve been given all the chances in the world; they just lost too many games. And yes, even as a Pac 10 apologist, I’m looking right at you Arizona, don’t look away from me.

That said Louisville is a pretty damn good team. I like their tenacity on defense and they can fill it up. They need Terrance Williams to continue playing like he has been. I’m hoping for a few holy-crap plays from him. I’d like to see him do his between the legs dunk in a game. I’m sure Pitino would love that. Also, I’d like to request that Pitino sport that ghastly white suit for at least one tourney game, but instead wear a red shirt and no tie so he can look exactly like Tony Montana.

I remember that during last year’s tournament, analysts were saying that Earl Clark was the best NBA prospect on the team and I couldn’t understand it. He’s a big guy who looks very athletic, but he seemed to me like he was completely lost on the court and had no idea what he was doing. He’s gotten better this year, but I don’t really like him as an NBA prospect.

Williams, on the other hand looks like he knows exactly what he should be doing at all times, except, of course, when he decides to shoot threes, of which he makes around 30 percent. Here’s a tip: if you’re only going to make three out of 10 shots from beyond the arc, from the COLLEGE stripe, I think you ought to stop shooting them with such regularity. I think he needs a shot doctor because he has a decent-looking stroke, but probably shoots it from all kinds of different heights because he jumps so damn high. One other thing, watch him run when he doesn’t have the ball. He looks like he’s wearing house slippers and shuffles in a way that suggests that if he doesn’t run that way, the slippers will come flying off. Chris Webber used to run this way. But it’s not as if he’s not athletic, he’s actually on the opposite end of that spectrum. The guy can dunk with his face if he wanted to. He’s one of those dudes who pretends to be a certain way because it looks cool or something. I didn’t get it until I confirmed that he is definitely a weird guy when I read Luke Winn’s SI article about him the other day. The gist of the article is that Williams is under the radar screen and that he’s another talented “point forward.” It was a good article and I enjoyed the brief history lesson on the position, but a few things struck me as “curious” about Williams. (1) he used to wear a Barbie backpack in high school, “just to be different,” (2) he’d wear Barney, Big Bird, and Spongebob Square Pants socks to practice, and (3) he was part of a “mean guy” group in high school, he told Winn that “we’d do stuff like come up to you in the cafeteria, knock your sandwich out of your hand and say, ‘You've gotta come strong to your mouth!’” Those are three very weird things filled with innuendo and I’m sure he’s grown out of some of them, if indeed growing out of certain things is possible to do. But if I was him, I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t be regaling an interviewer from SI about what a colossal dick I was to kids in high school. He looked the same as he does now as he did in high school. He might be a little bigger now at 220, but he was still 6’6 and at least 205. He sounds like a prototypical bully in an ‘80s comedy (movies, not the “Cosby Show”), if Hollywood actually comedies about teenage black kids in the ‘80s. Anyway, I love his game (except the shot).

Pick: Louisville

(8) Ohio State v. (9) Siena: This will be the first of many times that you’ll see me write this: I hate Big 10 Basketball. Normally I dislike broad, sweeping generalizations, but the style of play in that conference is nearly unwatchable at times. There are anomalies, such as that Illinois team lead by the three-guard attack of Deron Williams, Luther Head, and Dee Brown. They were exciting to watch because they pushed the action and were great shooters. My biggest beef is the dearth of scoring in the Big 10. Some of it is great defense, some of it is the conference’s complete lack of scoring ability. Evan Turner (of Club Trillion fame) led the Big 10 in scoring at 17.3. That’s gross and it’s indicative of what the Big 10 is capable of doing. I like my college hoops with scores hovering in the 70s and 80s. Take those games in the 50s and 60s games and seal them up with the Brylcreem and rampant racism.

Pick: Siena

(5) Utah v. (12) Arizona: My first thought then I saw Arizona in the field was, “That sucks for St. Mary’s.” A friend of mine went to school there and I’m sure he’s pissed that the Gaels are in the field. If Patty Mills didn’t get hurt they would be in without question because they probably would have beaten Gonzaga twice. As it is, he got hurt, St. Mary’s lost some games. The funny thing is, Arizona didn’t lose anyone and still lost games, yet here they are. Jordan Hill is a fantastic post player. Nic Wise is a decent PG and Chase Budinger is a hard guy to figure out, but I know that he can get deep-fryer hot and is explosive as hell. They don’t have many guys that play for them so if any of those guys rack up any fouls the only depth they will have is trouble. As for Utah, I know absolutely nothing about them, but I do know that they no longer have the tripled-umlauted wonder, Hanno Mottola, on their squad anymore. Too bad.

Quick tangent here, when I think of the University of Utah, I think back to a friend of mine who said that Utah is full of gorgeous women, nearly 90 percent of which are Mormon, and I wonder, is if fun to go to school there? I went to Pacific Lutheran University in Parkland, WA, and there were some really, really, really straight-laced people there, but I’d guess that they made up about half of the school’s population. Plus, we had beer with a full complement of alcohol content by volume. In Utah, their beer, by state law, has less alcohol content than normal. I don’t really have a point here at all, I just wanted to share what I think of when I think of Utah. Hot women, O’Doul’s-level beer, and religious tolerance.

The other thing that I think about is Andrew Bogut. I realize he was the first pick in the NBA draft a few years ago and sure, he’s a decent center with some nice ability, but I can’t picture him without thinking that he looks like a really ugly woman. He looks more like a woman than a man to me, even though he’d make a highly unattractive woman if that makes sense (I’m sure it doesn’t), not just because he’s 7’0 tall either because, as the photos prior to the Summer Games in Sydney proved, a freakishly tall woman (Lauren Jackson) can look quite fetching without any gear on.

Pick: Arizona

(4) Wake Forrest v. (13) Cleveland State: Wake has some great young players and was smokin’ hot early in the season. I actually kind of like their draw, they’ve got a really good chance to get to the Final Four, but they are one of those teams that I’ll probably pick to advance too far and they’ll burn me. Their youth is at the guard spot which is really dangerous in the tournament, but I do like their squad. I remember when UW played Cleveland State, but I didn’t see any of the game. I don’t recall if it was on TV or not, but I suspect that it wasn’t. I’ll be pulling for this team if for no other reason than the sweetness of this guy’s name: J'Nathan Bullock.

Pick: Wake

(6) West Virginia v. (11) Dayton: I haven’t seen Dayton play, but I did catch West Virginia play Louisville on March 7. They look like a pretty tough team and I’m hoping Bog Huggins busts out the sweet mock-turtleneck-no-sport-coat look for this game.

Pick: West Virginia

(3) Kansas v. (14) North Dakota State: Kansas pink-bellied UW early this year and made me think two things at the time: (1) Wow. UW cannot score and is not a tournament team, and (2) Kansas looks very good and the Cole Aldrich that we saw in limited doses during last year’s run is truly a nice player. I overreacted with my first thought, which is often the case, but my second thought is bearing out. Aldrich is a very nice player who isn’t the least bit stiff as his stature suggests that he is. I’m being insensitive here, but he looks like a big, slow, white guy and he’s big and white, but not necessarily slow, and he’s skilled. Kansas looks pretty tough to me still and a second round game of Kansas v. West Virginia looks promising. That said I’m fully rooting for North Dakota State to pull the upset. What’s not to like about a team that is in its first year of DI post-season eligibility that won its conference tournament on a play by their best player. The team can shoot the lights out and a team like that is very dangerous.

Pick: Kansas

(7) Boston College v. (10 USC): Truly a neutral floor for both teams. I doubt that anyone who went to USC decided that they liked the sun so much that they decided to move to Minneapolis. It’s more likely that BC alums live there because of the similar weather conditions. However, geographically speaking there is no advantage to either team in terms of travel. I haven’t seen BC play this year and can’t speak intelligently about them so I won’t, but I have seen USC play on several occasions and they are a difficult team to figure out. Throughout the year, they looked like a tournament team to me, but their record did not suggest it. They have very strong guard play out of Daniel Hackett and Dwight Lewis (who are both 6’5) and DeMar DeRozan is a freshman that I’ve been jocking for the entire season. I love his game and his ability. He’s turning it on at the right time as well (or maybe Tim Floyd is letting him play a little more freely now) as evidenced by his 21 and 13 game against UCLA he had in the Pac 10 tournament. Also, not sure if you saw this but he had a ferocious dunk in that same game where he stole the ball, passed it ahead, got it back and took off outside of the key, and nearly dunked the ball through the floor. It was incredible. I’m glad to see that they made it in the tournament because I think that they will make some serious noise.

Pick: USC

(2) Michigan State v. (15) Robert Morris: I have nothing to say about this game except that I don’t care and I hope it’s not a featured game on CBS anytime I’m in the vicinity of a TV.

Pick: Michigan State

WEST
(1) Connecticut v. (16) Chattanooga: I’m bummed Chattanooga bounced Steph Curry from the Tournament, I was looking forward to him lighting it up again. As for UCONN, they’re a very tough matchup because of their physical nature and talented guard play. They seem like a lock to make the Final Four.

Pick: Connecticut

(8) BYU v. (9) Texas A&M: Ugh. I echo my sentiments from the Michigan State game above. I might even turn off the TV if subjected to this game.

Pick: A & M, but who really cares? I picked BYU to go to the Sweet Sixteen when they had Rafael Araujo and they got chased home in the first round. Plus I hate all things BYU (with the exception of Steve Sarkisian, of course).

(5) Purdue v. (12) Northern Iowa: The Big 10 again… how in the world did they get seven teams in? I haven’t seen either of these teams, and my inclination to pick against the Big 10 based solely on hate is not very reasoned, so I guess I’ll side with Purdue if for no other reason than these two names on their roster, which I can only assume are very common names in Indiana: E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson. How can I argue with that?

Pick: Purdue

(4) Washington v. (13) Mississippi State: I both love and hate the way UW has been playing this year, but I can’t argue with the results. I love their ability to shoot the three (I should say Dentmon’s ability to do so and Thomas’s ability to occasionally do so). I love their defensive effort especially out of Overton and the two lanky fellows (Gant and Holiday). I love Pondexter’s realization that in order to be good, he’s got to be aggressive and put forth a ton of effort. I love Brockman’s ability to play like he’s made of boulders and Brillo pads and nab rebounds. I love Thomas’s strength, moxie, talent, and capability to make the right decisions as a freshman. I love the team’s heart and desire to storm back into games that they’re losing or to extend leads in games they are winning.

I hate the way that they don’t value possessions as much as they should be being too casual with the ball (on passes etc). I hate Brockman’s inability to score inside (exacerbated against this team with a dude who blocks everything thrown his way). I hate that I don’t trust anyone but Thomas and Dentmon to shoot a three. I hate their size at the guard position. I hate that Bryan-Amaning insists on missing two-foot shots.

I’m anxious for this game and I’m scared to talk about something that has been huge for them this year because it’s a highly jinxable topic. I’ll just say this, they are markedly better at one “thing” this year than they were at that “thing” last year when they were the worst team in the country doing that “thing.” I think that’s helped a lot. There, I think we’re ok…

I listened to a guy who covers Mississippi State this morning on KJR’s Mitch in the Morning show as I came in to work today and he described a team that is on a roll and that plays fast, plays aggressively, and have a great shot blocker. In other words, the same team that UW has without the shot blocker. A few months ago I said that MSU is the type of team that I wanted UW to play. I didn’t want them to go up against a team that was very disciplined and patient that had a big size advantage. They seem to have some bigger guards than UW, but who doesn’t?

I trust what I’ve seen in UW all year (even if I’m cursing at them each game and telling Brockman to stop trying to face up and do your crappy spin move in the post to charge into someone and pick up a stupid foul) and they seem like a team that is resilient enough to pull this game out and if they do, I don’t sweat Purdue or Northern Iowa in round 2.

Pick: Washington

(6) Marquette v. (11) Utah State: It’s a shame that Marquette lost Dominic James because their guard-oriented lineup was pretty great. I don’t know much about Utah State except that they are the third team from Utah in the tournament. Also, since they are from Utah it means that they’ll have the advantage of being more sober than a team from Wisconsin.

Pick: Marquette

(3) Missouri v. (14) Cornell: I’m really hoping that Missouri advances two rounds so that they get a chance to face Memphis (should they also advance). That game could rival the UW v. UAB game a few years ago. Mike Anderson (former UAB coach) has Missouri playing the same way his UAB squads played. Insane pace, pressing on D, athletic dudes running all over the place. I’m excited to see what this team can do and also what Anderson can do at a bigger conference where he can get more talented guys to run his game. I almost feel badly for Cornell. Almost.

Because I’m a big advocate of the power of names, I ask you this: how in the world do you stop Missouri’s Leo Lyons? This guy has double king of the jungle momentum going for him, plus he’s got the added benefit of being a Missouri Tiger. That’s a triple shot of big cat action.

Also, since we’re talking about Missouri, this is a good time and the perfect venue for me to mention that I’ve said for years that former Missouri forward, Doug Smith looks exactly like Big Daddy Kane.

Pick: Missouri

(7) California v. (10) Maryland: Cal is a tough team and evidently Mike Montgomery is a good college coach, but a horrid NBA coach, except that doesn’t matter anymore. It’s pretty clear he’ll stay in the college ranks where he belongs. I don’t know much about his team, and I don’t know anything about Maryland except that they got absolutely spanked a few times this year, which tells me that they have the propensity to lie down and die if they’re out of it.

Pick: California

(2) Memphis v. (15) Cal State Northridge: I saw Memphis just pants Gonzaga this year in Spokane. It was such a bad matchup for Gonzaga because of Memphis’s ridiculous athleticism. I like Tyreke Evans quite a bit. This looks like a very viable Final Four team. I was pissed that they lost to Kansas last year because I loved Derrick Rose, but he played very passively in the first half of that game. I don’t see the same kind of passivity in Evans, but he’s not the talent Rose was either…

Pick: Memphis

Tomorrow: East and South knee-jerk predictions

Griffey, Kiffin, UW Hoops - Friday, February 27, 2009

Biggest Winner
Ken Griffey Jr. Baseball is my least favorite sport of the big three as I’ve described before, but I do have a soft spot for M’s baseball. I will always follow it and sometimes I’ll even follow it earnestly. I’m not all moist though about this Griffey signing. I loved the guy when he played here and thought he was fantastic. I was very bummed when he left and then really bummed when he kept getting injured during his years in Cincy because he was on pace to break records and stuff. As it is, he’s 5th all time in the HR list and has a shot, albeit a distant one, at 3,000 hits. Remarkable considering he’s missed so much time due to injury. I was pretty against him coming back here, but then when he’s only going to get paid 2M or 4M max, it’s not that big of a deal. They’ve tossed over double that amount to pieces of crap like Weaver, so I changed my stance and am solidly in the it’ll-be-cool-to-see-Griffey-back-in-Seattle camp. He’s a winner because he actually wants to be here, and that can’t be understated.

Biggest Loser
Lane Kiffin, University of Tennessee Football Coach. Is he trying to get fired before he coaches a game? The secondary violations are stupid and meaningless in my opinion. But I just think that the bombastic nature and the way he’s going about things is bound to kill him at some point. He’s being way too much of a braggart especially this early in his career. He hasn’t done a thing to be able to act this way and I’d argue that a coach should never act the way that he’s acting because being a braggart is not a redeeming quality. It’s what insecure dudes do and I guess Lane is insecure. He does have a hot wife though, so good for him on that count. He just better watch his ass because Florida, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, and Auburn are going to steal his lunch money and chase him all the way home if he doesn’t back up what he’s saying.

My Thoughts on UW Hoops
I’m amazed at the goings-on at Bank of America Arena at Hec Edmonson Pavilion. I never thought that Justin Dentmon had this in him. He’s playing so well. I’ve been pissing on him for years and he’s just delivering this now. He looks so fast and is shooting unbelievably well. I don’t know where this has come from but I guess he just grew into his game and became confident over the summer and Isiah Thomas is probably helping out a great deal. If a player has any ability at all and then has confidence, then he’s going to be good. That’s just the way it is. A player with better ability but with shaky confidence will never be good. Anyway, I’m just glad he’s playing well. The team would be completely lost without him.

I’m impressed by Thomas and Overton on a consistent basis. I’m intermittently impressed by Gant, Bryan-Amaning, and Holiday all three of those guys do some really good things, but they also are apt to do some really stupid things. They turn the ball over on dumbass passes especially when they try to feed the post. Whatever, they’re young and they’ll get better. Bryan-Amaning has developed a nasty habit where he misses easy putbacks or 2 ft shots. He needs to knock those down and he probably will next year. He probably should start dunking in traffic also, he is 6'9 afterall. I still don’t know what to think of Pondexter and I suspect I’ll never know, unless he flips some sort of Dentmon-like switch in the offseason. He could be very good, but he’s just not yet. I do love Brockman's effort and heart and his rebounding ability. But I feel for the guy because it’s painfully obvious that he is such a limited player. I’m not just talking about his NBA potential, which is extraordinarily limited, but he gets very exposed, offensively, when he plays against guys that are simply taller than he is. He is a brute on the boards though and plays decent defense, but he should never, ever be counted on to score many buckets. It’s just not his game; luckily they have guys that can do that. He is so good in the open court if he’s got an open lane to the basket. He can rise and flush the ball easily and with authority, but he cannot do it from a standstill and certainly cannot explode in traffic to give himself an easy look at the basket. He may very well lead the league in getting his shot blocked. I think that the team is better off if he just gets defensive rebounds and starts the break and occasionally gets offensive rebounds and kicks it out. I be happy with him taking 5-8 shots a game and that’s it. His value is not on the offensive end. He seems to be realizing that more and more as the season goes on but I’m still a little dubious. He’s going to struggle offensively against USC, ASU, and UofA because Taj Gibson, Jeff Pendergraft, and Jordan Hill will lock him down. He just needs to go get the ball and get it to the playmakers and he and the team will be better for it.

I do believe that they can win games in the tournament, but it just depends on the matchups. I want them to face teams that are guard oriented because I think UW’s guards are superior. If they face a disciplined, plodding team with talent, I think that they might get into trouble i.e. Wisconsin or some other team that plays like Oregon State but is actually good.

Travis Henry
Someone mentioned to me that Travis Henry has multiple children. This was a story that came about about 2 years ago, I think. The fact that Travis Henry has multiple kids isn’t that remarkable. What makes it remarkable is that all of his kids (nine) have different mothers. All nine. If I played fantasy football I would have named my team “Nine By Nine” in his honor. This would be much better if he actually wore the number nine, but I still think that the joke is good nevertheless.

Barack Obama - Thursday, January 22, 2009

I listened to a podcast this week featuring Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman. They were discussing a variety of topics; one of the topics was Barack Obama and Klosterman said that he likes him and all that but also said that people are so excited about him that they would proclaim his genius regardless of what he decided to do. He said that he could make it his administration’s priority to lower the price for aluminum siding and people would go crazy and say things like, “That’s why we elected him president!” I thought that was mildly funny. Simmons analogized that it was like a sports team that had just come off of a bad season, but that had just signed a big free agent. The big free agent would have a brief honeymoon period and then everyone would settle down and then look objectively if he was doing a good job or not. I kind of went along with that, but I found myself interrupting their conversation (in my head) and interjecting my own points and I think I have a much better one that they didn’t get to. I think that a more apt analogy would be something more close to home.

My analogy is a franchise that has been terrible for several years who then goes out and hires a big name coach who then has the twin set of expectations coming into office: (1) there is nowhere to go but up, because the last several years have been terrible and (2) there are tons of expectations because this guy has been successful and he’s expected to replicate that success here. So, when I say I’m bringing it close to home, I’m thinking that Barack Obama is to the United States as Mike Holmgren was to the Seattle Seahawks. Let’s just hope that when Obama leaves office, he doesn’t do so with the equivalent of a 4-12 season. The Seahawks were horrible under Tom Flores and vexingly inconsistent and underachieving under Dennis Erickson. Change was needed. The Seahawks needed to make a splash and needed to aim for the moon. They did when they nabbed Mike Holmgren after two Super Bowl appearances (with one victory). He was a super-duper star. He rose to prominence by learning under Bill Walsh’s system (paralleling Obama’s time at Harvard); he was wildly successful in Green Bay (paralleling Obama’s time in the Illinois State Senate and the U.S. Senate); and he became coach of a moribund franchise with all of the power to turn things around, and the resources to do so by coaching Seattle and having Paul Allen as an owner (paralleling Obama getting elected president and having all of the resources of U.S. history and innovation etc).

So there.

Biggest Winner
Barack Obama. All hail the President. Regardless of your political leanings, you have to admit that when the world cheers for a dude, loudly and continuously, then that dude has got to be a big winner, around the world and here in your email inbox.

Biggest Loser
Mark McGuire. I just saw that his brother ratted him out for using steroids. My first reaction to that was, “no duh,” and my second reaction was, “if I had a brother, and he did something like that to me, I’d put him between my steroidal-enhanced bicep and forearm and squeeze him into incontinence.” We all know that McGuire was on ‘roids, but still, I think that it would suck to be called out on it by your brother, even if he is estranged. It’s pretty weak sauce to cash in on your brother just to sell some books. Cheating in baseball sucks and I wish the steroid stuff would just go away, but disreputable dudes “exposing” the story doesn’t really help much either.

UW Hoops
I go to sleep early these days so I wasn’t able to stay up and watch the entire USC game, but I saw probably ¾ of it. Anyway, I mostly like what I see. I’ve said this before, but don’t like Brockman trying to do anything except rebound and get points off of rebounds. I cringe when I see him get the ball on the wing and try to do something with it. He really has no chance to turn that into a positive play. Actually they should never give him the ball there, so that’s the guards’ fault. He will either turn the ball over or he’ll be called for a charge because he doesn’t have any handles, at all. I suppose it’s possible that someone could foul him, but that’s the least likely of all things. If he does get the ball there, he needs to either pass it immediately or take a jumper. We know that he can’t shoot, so that means he needs to pass the ball. He really should have No. 86 on his back and running down the sidelines with shoulder pads on. Did he even play high school football? It’s pathetic if he didn’t, being as big as he is. That said, he’s not big enough to really do any damage offensively, or defensively for that matter. He has very short arms and is really only 6’7 max. He gets completely exposed when a bigger guy is on him like Taj Gibson (6’9 with really long arms) was last night. I’m sure NBA scouts don’t like him. I’d be pretty amazed if he actually got drafted, but if Mark Madsen and Brian Scalabrine are in the NBA, then he’s got a chance, I guess.

I like the athleticism of the rest of the team though. MBA is a very active player and Holiday and Gant are tough lengthy dudes who are trouble, defensively, for teams. Their complete and utter lack of size at the guard spots scare me a little though. Dentmon is the biggest guy they have that gets minutes. When your dudes are 5’11 (Dentmon), 5’11 (Overton), and 5’8 (Thomas) that’s a problem is they are playing big guards (like last night). They’re quick though, and when they hit their shots they are a tough team. But that dude from USC, Marcus Johnson (No. 0) was completely crushing them. Also, that dude DeMar DeRozen is an amazing talent. They said he’s 6’7, but he looks more like 6’5 or so, but anyway, he’s a smooth player with a very good looking jumper and silly athleticism. He’s going to be very good.

I’m looking forward to the UCLA game tomorrow, that should be pretty good. Hopefully they can get another W and keep tacking on wins, I’d really like to see them back in the tournament, it’s way more fun to watch then they’re involved.

Super Bowl Thoughts - Thursday, January 29, 2009

Super Bowl Thoughts
I’m going with the Cards in this game. I obviously want them to win because Pitt can eat it, but I also think that the Cards are good and are actually playing well. Warner has a history of holding on to the ball too long, taking sacks, and fumbling the ball, but he just hasn't done it for awhile (as an aside Roethlisberger has the same maladies…). He faced an extremely tough D in Philly and was able to handle them easily. Brian Dawkins is every bit the safety that Troy Polomalu is and Asante Samuel is better than any corner Pitt has. Pitt clearly has superior LBs and have gotten to the QB like crazy this year so I'm a little concerned about that, but the Cards have good, big TEs (6’7 Leonard Pope is one) that can help with blocks and I think that they are going to slow them up, if not stonewall them altogether.

Much has been said this week about how unbelievably poor Roethlisberger played in the Super Bowl against Seattle. It’s true. He was terrible. Of course, he was a second-year player and is much better now, but I still don’t like his game. I liken him to yard waste. People throw out yard waste because it’s waste, but it does have a purpose. It can be composted and all of that crap. But yard waste isn’t something that you want to keep around for that very reason, it decomposes and turns nasty if it stays around too long. That’s Roethlisberger. He is so gross for the majority of the game and then comes up with very useful plays on third downs and late in the game with his ability to shed tacklers and move around and make passes. So he’s not garbage, which has no use and you want to get rid of it as quickly as possible (e.g. Charlie Frye), but he is waste. I hate him. I might be picking against Pitt simply because I hate him and their team and I don’t want any part of me pulling for them. But I do believe that there are lots of things pointing to a Cards victory.

Anyway, Pitt’s D is fantastic, but the Card’s offense is equally fantastic. I also think that the Card’s D is much better than Pitt’s offense, so I’m leaning toward the Cards, with my heart and my head.

Prediction: Arizona 31 Pitt 24

Bonus prediction: one of Pitt’s TDs will be on a return of some sort (special teams or defensive).

Caveat prediction: I can absolutely see the game unfolding as such, much to my chagrin:

• Cards win the toss, elect to receive

1st Quarter

• Cards march down the field, Warner overthrows Boldin, Ike Taylor picks it off at the 20
• Pitt goes to about midfield and punts
• Breaston muffs the punt, Pitt recovers on the 10
• Pitt scores on a 3rd and goal from the 15 (because they can’t run and Roethlisberger gets sacked) on a gross Roethlisberger toss to Heath Miller, 7-0 Pitt
• Cards take the ensuing kickoff to the 40, move the ball to the 38 and punt
• Pitt doesn’t do anything offensively and punts

2nd Quarter

• Cards move the ball but don’t score and punt again
• Pitt moves the ball to the 45 but stalls and punts
• Cards get the ball back, move it and fumble, Pitt recovers on the Cards’ 30
• Pitt scores a TD on a 15 yard Willie Parker run, 14-0 Pitt
• Cards move the ball and kick a field goal to end the half, 14-3 Pitt

Halftime (of a GROSS game thus far)
3rd Quarter

• Pitt take the opening kickoff and marches down the field to score a FG, 17-3 Pitt
• Cards move the ball and Warner throws another pick
• Pitt takes the ball down and scores on a 45 yard Willie Parker run, 24-3 Pitt
• Cards get the ball and finally punch it in on a Fitzgerald catch and run, 24-10 Pitt

4th Quarter

• Pitt goes on an 8:00 drive of runs and incomplete passes except for 3rd and 12, 15, and 8 passes by Roethlisberger and finally scores TD (pass to Limas Sweed), 31-10 Pitt
• Cards go on a long drive, go for it on 4th down and don’t get it
• Pitt takes the ball and does nothing exciting but chews up clock.
• Cards get the ball back and do nothing.

Final 31-10 Pitt, MVP Willie Parker

Now that I wrote that I just got sick to my stomach. This game could absolutely unfold this way and it wouldn’t surprise me at all, I just don’t want it to.

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s
Big game tonight. Unfortunately I’ll probably only get to watch the first half because I’m geriatric and go to bed at like 9:30. I’ve seen Gonzaga play a few times and I’ve been less than impressed with their effort. Losing to Portland State at home is inexcusable. I don’t know who they think they are, but they’re not good enough to just roll the ball out and dominate, especially with a guy like Austin Daye playing like his heart pumps apple juice. He’s a weakling. I think that he should stop wearing t-shirts underneath his jersey so that he’s forced to lift some weights to avoid the embarrassment of being a 20 year old man with the arms of a 13-year old girl.

UW and the Arizonas
I read Art Thiel’s piece on Isaiah Thomas yesterday and he said that several people have said that Thomas reminds people of Damon Stoudamire. I think that is a great comparison. They do play very similarly and are pretty much the same size. They are both crazy explosive scorers and both are left handed, which is interesting. If Thomas goes on to have the same type of career that Stoudamire does, then I’ll be really happy, as Thomas will be too, since Stoudamire was a first round draft pick (no. 7) and Rookie of the Year.

I like this team a lot. They are a much better team and a way more athletic team than they’ve had the last few years. They are getting to the line a ton of times; against USC and UCLA they got to the line 40 and 43 times respectively. That’s a ton of free throws especially when compared to how many times their opponents got to the line, USC 17 and UCLA 15. That’s ridiculous; they got to the line over 50 times more in two games. All while taking only six less field goals against USC and 12 less against UCLA.

The numbers are telling us that they’re being aggressive and taking the ball to the hole, something they have shied away from in recent years, instead settling for the jumper. Good things happen when they do this. Also, the numbers tell us that they are getting a lot of second chances because they’re getting so many rebounds. It’s exciting to see a team play aggressively and with talent. They’re a fun team to watch, even if they are frustrating at times with their really stupid turnovers etc.

The team doesn’t really have any spot-up shooters though and that will probably hurt them down the line, but I’d much rather have guys that can take it to the rim and shoot occasionally, than have a team full of Ryan Appleby’s who can do nothing well but shoot.

I have hope that they will take care of business in Arizona. ASU is good and UofA, despite their record, is a good team having beaten Kansas and Gonzaga this year and they’ve got two losses that are completely attributable to brain farts at the end of a game when a kid fouled intentionally because he thought they were losing, but were tied. Bad times. I could see UW winning both games and I can see them losing both. We’ll see.