Weak Draft

I’ve been reading how weak this draft is relative to others, which I thought was interesting because it seems like there are some really quality players who are draft eligible this year. I decided to take a look at the first rounds of the past 9 drafts (2007-1999… I didn’t look at 2008 because it’s too soon, although 2007 probably is also) to put in perspective just how “weak” this current draft class is relative to the last 9 years.

• 1999: 8 All-Stars out of 29 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest)
• 2000: 1 All-Star out of 29 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: None)
• 2001: 3 All-Stars out of 28 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: Pau Gasol, Tony Parker)
• 2002: 3 All-Stars out of 28 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire)
• 2003: 6 All-Stars out of 29 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade)
• 2004: 3 All-Stars out of 29 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: Dwight Howard)
• 2005: 3 All-Stars out of 30 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: Deron Williams, Chris Paul)
• 2006: 1 All-Star out of 30 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: Brandon Roy)
• 2007: 0 All-Stars out of 30 picks (All-NBA players from this draft: None)

Now let’s take a look at some of the names routinely mentioned as first round picks and see where this perceived “weakness” emanates.

1. Blake Griffin – considered by many (not me) as the no-brainer, best player in the draft.
2. Ricky Rubio – widely thought to be a fantastic NBA point guard despite slight build and shaky shooting. He’d also be a top 5 pick in any draft the past 10 years.
3. Hasheem Thabeet – mock drafts have had him ranked high for years. While I believe that he has several shortcomings, would he have ever been considered anything other than a top 10 pick in the last 10 years? Before you answer, take a look at some of these names, all of whom were indeed top 10 picks in the last 10 years: Danillo Gallinari, ’08; Joe Alexander, ’08; Yi Jianlian, ’07; Brandan Wright, ’07; Adam Morrison, ’06; Shelden Williams, ’06; Patrick O’Bryant, ’06; Mohammed Saer Sene, ’06; Martell Webster, ’05; Channing Frye, ’05; Ike Diogu, ’05; Shuan Livingston, ’04; Rafael Araujo, ’04; Luke Jackson, ’04; Darko Milicic, ’03; Mike Sweetney, ’03; Jay Williams, ’02; Mike Dunleavy, ’02; Nikoloz Tskitishvili, ’02; Dajuan Wagner, ’02; Kwame Brown, ’01; Eddy Curry, ’01; Eddie Griffin, ’01; DeSagana Diop, ’01; Rodney White, ’01; Stromile Swift, ’00; Darius Miles, ’00; Marcus Fizer, ’00; DeMarr Johnson, ’00; Chris Mihm, ’00; Jonathan Bender, ’99. That’s what I thought. The answer is no.
4. Jrue Holiday – Here is where I’ve seen the rumblings that the draft begins to get weak. Holiday is an intriguing player who has high value because he can play PG and good defense. I don’t understand the weak commentary.
5. Jordan Hill – I like his toughness and size, he has a ceiling to be a Nene-type of player, but he could also bust.
6. James Harden – I dislike his game. I see him as a definite bust candidate.
7. Brandon Jennings – I have no idea and neither does anyone else.
8. Stephen Curry – I love this guy, but he has huge bust potential because he’s so frail and not quick. He definitely could be a better Mike Bibby though.
9. Tyreke Evans – Not a fan, but he’s got moxie. I don’t see him busting.
10. Jonny Flynn – nice player who will definitely get a chance because of his speed and strength at his position
11. DeJuan Blair – he’ll do really well because there are so many finesse big guys in the league and he can push them around.
12. DeMar DeRozan – one of my favorites in the draft. He’s got something going on.
13. Jeff Teague – If Wake Forest didn’t get trounced early in the tournament, I might have an opinion on him, but I don’t.
14. Earl Clark – I don’t like him and see huge bust possibilities. He’s physically extraordinarily talented, but if there are effort concerns about him in college, why wouldn’t he have them once he’s paid? Haven’t we seen this story before? Also, I’m not convinced that he knows what he’s doing on the floor.
15. James Johnson – see Jeff Teague
16. Gerald Henderson – role player at best. I don't see it in him.
17. Eric Maynor – I like him a lot. I see a lot of Andre Miller in him without the ‘tude.
18. B.J. Mullens – I’ve got four words for you: B. U. S. T. Come on, there’s no chance he plays meaningful minutes ever, right?
19. Ty Lawson – I like Ty, for the same reasons I like Flynn, only Lawson has a better shot (I’d call it a jumper, but it’s really a set shot)
20. Tyler Hansbrough – most people think that he’ll fail, so he can’t really bust, can he? I do like his chances more than most, though.
21. Chase Budinger – he’s been touted as a lottery pick ever since his freshman year. He’ll be fine because of his athleticism and range.
22. Terrence Williams – I’ve always liked him, but I don’t see him ever developing a reliable jumper. If he shot so poorly from 3pt range in college, how is that going to improve in the NBA when the line is much further back? I think I’ve said before that he just needs to establish a consistent release point, but I don’t know if he’ll ever do that.
23. Austin Daye – I’ve stated my case against Daye for a long time and I’m very tired of reading how he is one of the most “skilled” guys in the draft. I don’t really get that. I will say that he has a nice looking jumper and can block jump shots, but can he pass? Can he rebound? Can he move? He hasn’t shown any ability whatsoever in college that he can do that. For being so “skilled” he’s painfully slow and has terrible feet. I don’t get him at all.
24. Nick Calathes – no idea.
25. Gani Lawal – no idea
26. DaJuan Summers – no idea
27. Sam Young – tough player who can play a role, but not much more.
28. Darren Collison – was formerly thought to be a top 10 pick. I see a lot of Darrell Armstrong in him but with longer arms. That’s not too bad.
29. Toney Douglas – love him. He’ll be one of the better players in this draft.
30. Patrick Mills – tough guy who will play some decent minutes for a good team and a lot of minutes for a team that needs a point guard (and many other things)

It looks like there are around 17 guys that I like in this draft and around 6 that look like they have All-Star ability. Does that make it weak? Sure, I suppose so, but it doesn’t make it any weaker than any of the 9 previous years. Even the 2003 draft, widely believed to be one of the all-time best produced only 15 players worth talking about, of course, included in that list of 15 are four super-duper stars: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and four good players: David West, Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa, and Josh Howard, but that year was an aberration. More commonly, the drafts feature players who have similar ability and potential as this year’s class.

The point is, this draft is no weaker than any other year and I’m tired of reading that statement as if it were fact.